May 9, 2009: UPDATE: Cases in USA now up to 2,254. Growing too quickly to keep updating daily. For daily updates, see the new CDC Map of H1N1 in the USA for your region. There have been 3 deaths from H1N1 in the USA.
Confirmed Cases of Type A/H1N1 In Other Countries: (scroll down for the article)
Mexico City: 19 confirmed deaths from H1N1; 176 suspected deaths; 506 sick with H1N1.
BC (Canada): 6 cases.
Alta. (Canada): 2 cases.
Nova Scotia (Canada): 4 cases.
Ontario: 16 cases.
Spain: 13 cases.
Netherlands: 1 case.
UK: 15 cases (unfortunately, WHO ignores the national boundaries defining Scotland, Wales and North.Ire.)
Ireland: 1 case.
New Zealand: 4 cases.
Costa Rica: 1 case.
France: 2 cases.
Germany: 6 cases.
Austria: 1 case.
Switzerland: 1 case.
Israel: 2 cases.
South Korea: 1 case.
Hong Kong: 1 case.
Update: April 25, 6:20pm ET: CDC says virus shows ability to jump from human-to-human.
Update: April 26, 11am ET: New Zealand (25), Israeli (1), Spanish (3) and French (4) passengers showing flu-like symptoms coming back from travel to Mexico have been detained and taken into isolation for tests. Most reports now showing 81 dead from the flu in Mexico. As of today, Tamiflu and Relenza are available OTC from pharmacies in major cities (source: The Times Online).
Update: April 27, 7:30pm ET: WHO raises alert level from 3 to 4. “The change to a higher phase of pandemic alert indicates that the likelihood of a pandemic has increased, but not that a pandemic is inevitable.” … “Given the widespread presence of the virus, the Director-General considered that containment of the outbreak is not feasible.” 56 confirmed cases in New Zealand. Israel, Brazil, Guatemala, Peru, Australia: suspected cases being tested.
Update: Tuesday, 2:30pm ET: 45 cases confirmed in NYC. Still no swine flu deaths outside Mexico. H2H (human-to-human) transmission confirmed occuring only in Mexico.
Update: Tuesday, 5pm ET: Possible A/H1N1 case in Indiana, Maine and Connecticut. H2H suspected in NYC.
Update Wednesday, 10:15am ET: U.S. sees the first death from H1N1, a 23-month-old baby in Texas.
Update Wednesday 7:15pm ET: Major new number of H1N1 confirmations in the U.S. WHO raises alert from 4 to 5. At the same time, reports say rate of infection already slowing in Mexico.
May 03, 2009: While media reports about H1N1 have now come off the front pages and top headlines, ironically, the number of cases confirmed has not continued to abate, but has continued to grow. There are now 226 confirmed cases in the US (throughout 30 states) and 85 in Canada.
May 4, 2009: Major jump in cases overnight with Louisiana now having 14 cases. Now there are 36 states with H1N1.
May 5, 2009: Major jump in confirmed cases overnight – now there are 82 cases in Illinois; 15 in Oregon; 90 in New York. 38 States now with confirmed cases.
The recent rise of deaths and sicknesses in the case of the Mexican swine flu, an “animal strain of the H1N1 virus,” has more than the WHO concerned. I remember following the Asian avian flu scare of 2005. Apparently, the WHO is even more concerned about the pandemic potential of Mexico City’s new hybrid human/swine/bird influenza virus than it was with the avian H5N1 influenza from a few years back. In an emergency meeting in Geneva today, WHO considered raising alerts from 3 to 4, and are already screening any airport passengers leaving and arriving from Mexico.
Where did the flu come from? According to the CDC, “Swine Influenza (swine flu) is a respiratory disease of pigs caused by type A influenza that regularly cause outbreaks of influenza among pigs. Swine flu viruses do not normally infect humans, however, human infections with swine flu do occur, and cases of human-to-human spread of swine flu viruses has been documented.” This particular outbreak began in Mexico City with the first death on April 13. By April 24 there were 60 dead and 800 sick.
Why is it such a big deal? We’re overdue for another “plague-like” pandemic. They tend to occur with some regularity throughout history, but we haven’t seen one around the world since the Spanish flu of 1918, which killed more people than died in the first world war. More importantly, hybrid combo-viruses have higher potentials of mutating into new forms that can’t be as easily controlled. If the combo-virus jumps into a “human” form of H5N1, it can spread quite quickly if it mutates enough to be able to jump from human-to-human.
According to the NYTimes reporting from the CDC, “Most of Mexico’s dead were young, healthy adults and none were over 60 or under 3 years old, the World Health Organization said. That alarms health officials because seasonal flus cause most of their deaths among infants and the bedridden elderly, but pandemic flus often strike the young and healthy the hardest.”
Don’t Panic, But Be Prepared
As frightening as it might be — and I don’t want to exaggerate things here — we need to be ready to start planning ahead and taking action in such circumstances. Although, ultimately, you may be limited by your location, age, and other factors such as the availability of vaccines like Tamiflu or Relenza, there are steps you can take to help protect yourself in the case of some large-scale situation like a pandemic. In fact, some of these steps are general guidelines for all emergency situations, and thus pertain to personal finance, as well, as Pete from BibleMoneyMatters wrote about a couple of days ago in his post on fire safes.
Here are my suggestions, based on the research I did a few years ago with the avian flu pandemic scare:
- alert family
- come up with an action plan
- decide if you will “stay put” or “bug out“
- obtain the supplies you need in either case
- keep up to date on the news (those with iphones are well-supplied here)
- be ready to take action if necessary
Alert Family. I’ve already made calls to discuss the “pandemic potential” of this virus. I’ve also tweeted about it on Twitter. This is the first step in general awareness. Not everyone gets the news daily or even gets on the internet daily, so make sure you tell them.
Action Plan: Staying Put. Ultimately, there isn’t much you can do if it truly is a pandemic that has already been “let out of the gate.” You can either stay at home and be ready to seal up your house with no one coming in or going, or you can “bug out” to some hopefully isolated place where you won’t find contact with anyone. I think staying put makes more sense, but it will have its own set of challenges, too.
Action Plan: Bugging Out. You need to have a “bug-out bag” ready and a place in mind. Where will you go? Will you go alone? How will you get there? What will you do once you get there?
Get your supplies. No matter what your plan is, you’re going to need (1) water (2) shelter (3) food (4) basic hygiene and first-aid kits (5) fire-starters and light/heat devices (6) communication devices of some kind. Some people always plan ahead and stock up on these things throughout the year. It might be a good idea to start thinking about what you need. Make a list (see my post on shelter-in-place and bug-out supplies for pandemic emergencies). Know where to get what you need. Here are a few quick suggestions:
- batteries, candles, matches, wood, generators
- dried foods, canned goods, bulk food supplies (rice, flour, grains, peanut butter)
- extra pet food and pet supplies!
- extra jugs/bottles water
- toilet paper and other essential hygiene items
- tape, duct tape, nails, garbage bags
- hydrogen peroxide, bandaids, emergency first-aid kits
- online bill payments (for those who will stay indoors in their house)
- withdraw the cash you need now from the bank
- extra cigarettes, etc. for those who will “need” them
Keep informed. Now is the time for social media – as it’s much easier to share vital information on an almost instantaneous basis with new tools like Twitter (find me there at @MoneyEnergy). Read news updates in Google or on your RSS. If you have an iPhone or similar mobile that lets you access the internet wherever you go, all the better. In fact this is an excellent reason for getting an iPhone! I think I’m convincing myself… Emergency radios are another great idea.
Know When to Take Action. You have to decide when enough is enough. Are you going to wait to see illnesses in your area? Your state? Your city? When will you board up your doors and windows, when will you bug out? Keeping up to date on the news should help here too, by knowing what others are doing in your own town or city.
Undoubtedly there are other measures to take to protect yourself, so list them below and I’ll keep updating the list. I don’t want to sound like I’m saying the “sky is falling,” I don’t want to be hyperbolic. I just think it’s prudent to be aware of these things in advance in the same way that we buy life insurance, protect our money from hyperinflation and keep emergency funds. In fact, a situation like this is a case in point as to why it’s important to have an emergency fund. You might consider starting an emergency fund just for such extraordinary situations as these. Incidentally, here’s an interesting post on the broader economic effects of a pandemic.
Reliable Information on Swine Flu
An excellent resource for further updates on the Swine flu is the Fluwikie. I highly encourage you to check it out. Also see the WHO’s Swine Flu page and the CDC’s Swine Flu page. The disadvantage of the latter two sites is that they tend not to be updated more than once or twice a day (partly due to the fact that confirmation testing can take up to a day itself). I will also keep updating here if the outbreak continues to grow, so you can come back here in the event that any of the other sites aren’t accessible due to too-high traffic, etc.
Who To Follow On Twitter for Flu Outbreak Updates:
@CP_Branswell – Helen Branswell, medical reporter for the Canadian Press.
@InsideMexico – You can also get updates on their blog about living in Mexico.
@cancuncanuck – Does translations from Spanish to English.
@DemFromCT – helps run the Fluwikie. Specialist.
@CDCFlu – (general flu info, not H1N1 specific)
@CDCEmergency – this is for the breaking news.
@swine_flu – (based in Canada)
@PandemicFlu – purports to be a doctor with virology training, but gives no identity
@Veratect – they specialize in this
@SwineFluWatch
Another great, informative, reliable poster on H1N1 is @Lyne_Robichaud. She tweets often in French, but is fully bilingual with English, so you can ask her questions. Another tweeter who has been specializing in similar epidemics on his own blog long before the H1N1 scare is @Fla_Medic. These two tweeters are no hype and all substance.
You also want to follow and take seriously anything that Dr Michael Osterholm says. He’s an influenza expert at the University of Minnesota and considered one of the most authoritative in the world.
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{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }
i’m hoping the Swine Flu amounts to as little as the other scares and outbreaks that have occurred over the last couple of years
Scary stuff! Makes me wanted to barricade the doors. Let’s hope this stuff goes the way of the dinosaurs.
Yeah Rick, actually, I think the more we know about it the less scary it gets because we have more foresight and control. I studied the avian flu epidemic of 2005 and learned quite a bit back then. I’m not worried about the swine flu at this point.
Interesting stuff. Did you hear that there’s a new strain which is resistant to the anti-flu drugs? Tamiflu etc? Found a really good website for tracking it’s progress, seems to be updated every hour or so.