Comments on: Are You Ready For the September Sell-Offs In the Stock Market? http://www.getmoneyenergy.com/2009/08/are-you-ready-for-the-september-sell-offs-in-the-stock-market/ DRIP Investing for Dividend Growth, Cashflow and Financial Freedom Mon, 15 Mar 2010 06:37:07 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: jennismortal http://www.getmoneyenergy.com/2009/08/are-you-ready-for-the-september-sell-offs-in-the-stock-market/comment-page-1/#comment-2614 jennismortal Mon, 24 Aug 2009 11:28:38 +0000 http://www.getmoneyenergy.com/?p=1568#comment-2614 Wow with everyone getting ready for the September sell offs all over the place Ill just keep holding cash and buy at the lows. Wall street is not going anywhere. The market is fundementally flawed and a gamble right now, but show me a better way to make money from money in the short term. ________________ Need help with your <a href="http://www.online-stocktrades.net" rel="nofollow">online stock trades</a>? Wow with everyone getting ready for the September sell offs all over the place Ill just keep holding cash and buy at the lows. Wall street is not going anywhere. The market is fundementally flawed and a gamble right now, but show me a better way to make money from money in the short term.
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]]> By: AskAlice http://www.getmoneyenergy.com/2009/08/are-you-ready-for-the-september-sell-offs-in-the-stock-market/comment-page-1/#comment-2594 AskAlice Wed, 19 Aug 2009 18:00:42 +0000 http://www.getmoneyenergy.com/?p=1568#comment-2594 September 2009 is going to be a horrible month for world equities. I would suggest shorting the markets with inverse ETF;'s and put the rest in cash. The "positive" spin put out by the propaganda machine is filled with half truth and out and out lies. Hang on, it going to be a rough ride September 2009 is going to be a horrible month for world equities. I would suggest shorting the markets with inverse ETF;’s and put the rest in cash.

The “positive” spin put out by the propaganda machine is filled with half truth and out and out lies.

Hang on, it going to be a rough ride

]]> By: Chad @ Sentient Money http://www.getmoneyenergy.com/2009/08/are-you-ready-for-the-september-sell-offs-in-the-stock-market/comment-page-1/#comment-2587 Chad @ Sentient Money Tue, 18 Aug 2009 10:27:42 +0000 http://www.getmoneyenergy.com/?p=1568#comment-2587 Since 1950, September has been the worst performing month on a percentage basis for all three major U.S. indices. Check out this graph of monthly performance from 1950 and 1980, to present. September is easily the worst month...not even close. http://seekingalpha.com/article/93199-september-worst-month-for-market-performance It is highly highly unlikely that September's poor performance is due to some lingering harvest time psychology for two reasons. One, the percentage of people who have actually farmed is very very low, so they have no clue what harvest time entails. Two, harvest time for an agrarian society is a time to celebrate, not collapse in dispair. There are also more measurable reasons to account for September lows. One reason September could be the worst month is that everyone is back to work on Wall Street. As with most businesses, the summer finds 15-20% of the employees on vacation at any given time. Shrinking the total hours worked for this time period shrinks the total number of trades performed. Plus, when they get back, the reasons below all get done: 1. Mutual funds want to dump their losing stocks before the end of the third quarter in order to free up funds for investing fourth quarter. 2. Hedge funds doing the same thing. 3. Mutual funds doing profit taking by end of third quarter (window dressing). 4. Hedge funds doing the same thing. 5. Investors sell stocks to pay for their summer vacation credit card bills. 6. Investors sell stocks to pay for their kids' fall college tuition. 7. The last day to file your tax return with extensions is October 15. Investors sell in September to have funds to pay their tax bill in October. 8. Investors selling in September due to fear of being in the market during October (the month of major crashes: 1929, 1987, 1989, & 1997). 9. Uncertainty over earnings of consumer goods companies for the third quarter due to so much vacationing during the summer. There is no one reason alone responsible for poor Septembers. Since 1950, September has been the worst performing month on a percentage basis for all three major U.S. indices. Check out this graph of monthly performance from 1950 and 1980, to present. September is easily the worst month…not even close.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/93199-september-worst-month-for-market-performance

It is highly highly unlikely that September’s poor performance is due to some lingering harvest time psychology for two reasons. One, the percentage of people who have actually farmed is very very low, so they have no clue what harvest time entails. Two, harvest time for an agrarian society is a time to celebrate, not collapse in dispair.

There are also more measurable reasons to account for September lows.

One reason September could be the worst month is that everyone is back to work on Wall Street. As with most businesses, the summer finds 15-20% of the employees on vacation at any given time. Shrinking the total hours worked for this time period shrinks the total number of trades performed. Plus, when they get back, the reasons below all get done:

1. Mutual funds want to dump their losing stocks before the end of the third quarter in order to free up funds for investing fourth quarter.
2. Hedge funds doing the same thing.
3. Mutual funds doing profit taking by end of third quarter (window dressing).
4. Hedge funds doing the same thing.
5. Investors sell stocks to pay for their summer vacation credit card bills.
6. Investors sell stocks to pay for their kids’ fall college tuition.
7. The last day to file your tax return with extensions is October 15. Investors sell in September to have funds to pay their tax bill in October.
8. Investors selling in September due to fear of being in the market during October (the month of major crashes: 1929, 1987, 1989, & 1997).
9. Uncertainty over earnings of consumer goods companies for the third quarter due to so much vacationing during the summer.

There is no one reason alone responsible for poor Septembers.

]]> By: MoneyEnergy http://www.getmoneyenergy.com/2009/08/are-you-ready-for-the-september-sell-offs-in-the-stock-market/comment-page-1/#comment-2585 MoneyEnergy Tue, 18 Aug 2009 06:37:44 +0000 http://www.getmoneyenergy.com/?p=1568#comment-2585 @Monevator - a lingering cultural memory... I like that, interesting. Have no idea the truth of it, but I think I've heard something related to that. Another weird thing I've read is that September is all-around deemed the "most stressful" month of the year (for everyone, in general) by some psychological study. That's probably related in some weird butterfly-effect kind of way, too:) It's also hurricane season, back-to-school, Congress is back, back-from-vacation, etc. @Monevator – a lingering cultural memory… I like that, interesting. Have no idea the truth of it, but I think I’ve heard something related to that. Another weird thing I’ve read is that September is all-around deemed the “most stressful” month of the year (for everyone, in general) by some psychological study. That’s probably related in some weird butterfly-effect kind of way, too:) It’s also hurricane season, back-to-school, Congress is back, back-from-vacation, etc.

]]> By: Monevator http://www.getmoneyenergy.com/2009/08/are-you-ready-for-the-september-sell-offs-in-the-stock-market/comment-page-1/#comment-2584 Monevator Tue, 18 Aug 2009 06:30:41 +0000 http://www.getmoneyenergy.com/?p=1568#comment-2584 As always I'm well over 90% invested but I did trim a couple of speculative / riskier positions that had run a long way last week to take some gains just in case we see a pull back. Regarding October and its crashes, I read an interesting theory once that suggested it was coupled with harvest time and getting the grain in -- that there was some lingering cultural memory. Just a thought! As always I’m well over 90% invested but I did trim a couple of speculative / riskier positions that had run a long way last week to take some gains just in case we see a pull back.

Regarding October and its crashes, I read an interesting theory once that suggested it was coupled with harvest time and getting the grain in — that there was some lingering cultural memory. Just a thought!

]]> By: Matt SF http://www.getmoneyenergy.com/2009/08/are-you-ready-for-the-september-sell-offs-in-the-stock-market/comment-page-1/#comment-2566 Matt SF Fri, 14 Aug 2009 03:20:09 +0000 http://www.getmoneyenergy.com/?p=1568#comment-2566 A pullback is definitely something to watch for... especially with the 50% run since the March lows. I've been holding up IRA contributions since June b/c I just don't buy into the whole "V shaped bottom" idea. A couple sectors are still attractive b/c they were hammered, but the broad market isn't making that much sense to me. A pullback is definitely something to watch for… especially with the 50% run since the March lows. I’ve been holding up IRA contributions since June b/c I just don’t buy into the whole “V shaped bottom” idea.

A couple sectors are still attractive b/c they were hammered, but the broad market isn’t making that much sense to me.

]]> By: Chad @ Sentient Money http://www.getmoneyenergy.com/2009/08/are-you-ready-for-the-september-sell-offs-in-the-stock-market/comment-page-1/#comment-2565 Chad @ Sentient Money Thu, 13 Aug 2009 17:40:13 +0000 http://www.getmoneyenergy.com/?p=1568#comment-2565 It seems a little extreme because I don't fallow the "expert" advice on allocation and market timing, as it doesn't make much sense for people who pay attention and are willing to put in a little research. Their advice is seems good in easy money markets, as anyone can toss out a positive return then. Unfortunately, the easy money market is over. These market cycles tend to take 15-17 years based on historical cycles, so the rough times have a way to go. It seems a little extreme because I don’t fallow the “expert” advice on allocation and market timing, as it doesn’t make much sense for people who pay attention and are willing to put in a little research. Their advice is seems good in easy money markets, as anyone can toss out a positive return then. Unfortunately, the easy money market is over. These market cycles tend to take 15-17 years based on historical cycles, so the rough times have a way to go.

]]> By: Chad @ Sentient Money http://www.getmoneyenergy.com/2009/08/are-you-ready-for-the-september-sell-offs-in-the-stock-market/comment-page-1/#comment-2564 Chad @ Sentient Money Thu, 13 Aug 2009 17:16:24 +0000 http://www.getmoneyenergy.com/?p=1568#comment-2564 The positive numbers are one time bonuses from cost cutting, staff cuts, and re-stocking of an inventory that will be depleted more slowly with reduced consumer spending. None of these mean growth for the future. At best they allow companies to tread water. I'm not saying the economy will decline like it did over the last 8 months. I am saying it will be roughly flat lined to slightly negative over an extended period of time. This means the current market run-up isn't based on real information, but on psychology. The positive numbers are one time bonuses from cost cutting, staff cuts, and re-stocking of an inventory that will be depleted more slowly with reduced consumer spending. None of these mean growth for the future. At best they allow companies to tread water.

I’m not saying the economy will decline like it did over the last 8 months. I am saying it will be roughly flat lined to slightly negative over an extended period of time. This means the current market run-up isn’t based on real information, but on psychology.

]]> By: MoneyEnergy http://www.getmoneyenergy.com/2009/08/are-you-ready-for-the-september-sell-offs-in-the-stock-market/comment-page-1/#comment-2563 MoneyEnergy Thu, 13 Aug 2009 16:55:19 +0000 http://www.getmoneyenergy.com/?p=1568#comment-2563 @Chad - wow, that's really extreme. I'm not that bearish. But lately I am seeing the case for continued deflation as a bit more likely. You're right, I think, about some of the positive numbers everywhere - net profits are "up" in many cases just because so many companies have cut costs, staff, etc., and written off losses. It's not all any actual earnings. @Chad – wow, that’s really extreme. I’m not that bearish. But lately I am seeing the case for continued deflation as a bit more likely. You’re right, I think, about some of the positive numbers everywhere – net profits are “up” in many cases just because so many companies have cut costs, staff, etc., and written off losses. It’s not all any actual earnings.

]]> By: Chad @ Sentient Money http://www.getmoneyenergy.com/2009/08/are-you-ready-for-the-september-sell-offs-in-the-stock-market/comment-page-1/#comment-2562 Chad @ Sentient Money Thu, 13 Aug 2009 15:28:39 +0000 http://www.getmoneyenergy.com/?p=1568#comment-2562 I am at least 90% cash right now and may be 100% cash by the end of the day. There are no numbers suggesting this current stock market explosion is based on anything but hope. Just factoring in the people falling off of unemployment is a very serious hit to the economy. I do market time when it is obvious. The coming downturn is as obvious as the previous one. It should also be noted that the positive GDP numbers from Europe (announced yesterday/overnight) are not uncommon in a recession. Actually, it is fairly common to have positive quarterly GDP numbers during a down turn. This does not indicate a recovery. I am at least 90% cash right now and may be 100% cash by the end of the day. There are no numbers suggesting this current stock market explosion is based on anything but hope. Just factoring in the people falling off of unemployment is a very serious hit to the economy. I do market time when it is obvious. The coming downturn is as obvious as the previous one.

It should also be noted that the positive GDP numbers from Europe (announced yesterday/overnight) are not uncommon in a recession. Actually, it is fairly common to have positive quarterly GDP numbers during a down turn. This does not indicate a recovery.

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