Today, Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) shares plunged below $30 for the first time. Speculators are now running wild with “I-told-you-so” arguments (and I told you so, too) and dismal proclamations about Facebook’s future (or “faceplant”) from here.
The question now that Facebook has broke through a new floor is how low Facebook shares can sink from here? What will the next level of support be at? How much new money will have to pour in to support shares at these levels?
Facebook’s IPO seems to have been glitched from the get-go, its opening of trading delayed by 30 minutes on the NASDAQ as a result of a technical glitch. How long is this curse going to last? With the new rumors unveiled regarding Facebook’s plans for a Facebook phone, one wonders how much of the IPO price was intended to support the production of the proposed phone, and whether this will now continue. Other investors have complained that Facebook was not transparent enough about the slowing in its earnings growth just prior to the IPO.
The Facebook Faceplant
At this point, the shares are down 20% from the IPO. This is why it is a good idea to wait a week, even a month, before investing in an IPO. The stock might not even settle down for another 6 months.
It could also be useful to compare today’s results with where Facebook stood just over 16 months ago. I wrote about how much each Facebook user is worth one year ago. Back then it was valued at $50 billion. Today it’s valued around $61 billion, post-IPO. Was it worth it? It seems likely that the stock can still drop further. Maybe even down to the same market cap that it was worth one year ago.
After all, has its revenue model changed much? I remain a Facebook sceptic, even from a shareholder’s point of view. I know people who are waiting to jump in and buy it closer to $20, but even there I am not sure I would be ready. There was one report valuing FB stock around $13. That seems reasonable, and would certainly put them into proper perspective vis a vis Google’s actual worth.-