I don’t think the markets are all that calm right now - the VIX is still hovering around the 60’s - but they are definitely calmer than they were one month ago.  There’s a more long-term uncertainty now, perhaps, rather than a day-to-day disaster feeling, even if the roller coasters in the Dow are still happening.

Either way, it seems there are less readers now in search of immediate news and analysis - less coming by the blog on a daily basis, anyway, compared with the months so far.  Generally, though, I think this blog always tends to get busier towards the end of each month for some reason.  I checked the stats for this month and so far November is really underperforming.  Any other bloggers notice this too? (Probably not the most popular ones, though).  Not sure why.

It would be nice to engage in deeper discussions here in the comments with readers, however…. it’s great to know you’ve got a new blog or something but I’d really rather hear your thoughts on what I actually wrote about:)  - not pointing fingers at anyone, though.  It could be that I’ve put people off by my emphasis on the Canadian dollar - since Americans are more numerous on here, anyway…

Anyways, here’s looking forward to the holiday season!  Can’t believe it’s being advertised already.  Time to buy some Wal-Mart stock, I think - and if I had the extra cash right now, I might actually do that.  But I’m still waiting for the dollars to turn around…

This is really interesting.  As reported in the Financial Times, “J.P. Morgan has put together an Aging Population Index to track a basket of stocks that have meaningful exposure to this group in North America. It has outperformed the S&P 500 Index in six of the past eight years in both absolute and risk-adjusted terms.

The index currently consists of 21 stocks, with a sector breakdown of 48% healthcare, 33% consumer discretionary, 14% financials and 5% materials.”

Do you Own Any “Baby Boomer” stocks?

Here’s their list:

Celgene Corp. (drug therapy)
Humana Inc. (Medicare)
Carnival Corp. (cruise line)
Hcp Inc. (REIT)
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (cruise line)
Coventry Health Care Inc. (pharmacy manager)
Varian Medical Systems Inc. (Cancer treatment)
Omnicare Inc. (pharmacy, services)
Nationwide Health Properties Inc. (housing and care facilities)
Wyndham Worldwide Corp. (hotels and time shares)
Chico’s FAS Inc. (clothing chain)
CBRL Group Inc. (restaurants)
Talbots Inc. (clothing chain)
Conseco Inc. (equipment)
American Medical Systems Holdings Inc. (healthcare products)
Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (Gardening)
Kindred Healthcare Inc. (long-term care)
HealthSpring Inc. (health benefits)
Coldwater Creek Inc. (clothing chain)
Universal American Corp. (health benefits)
Sun Healthcare Group Inc. (nursing homes)

Another rally in the markets today.  The US dollar is down again and the Canadian dollar is up by another four cents, following on oil’s rise above $66 (it’s now at more than $68 after hours as I write).  Quite amazing how quickly the cash flows back in once those on the sidelines sense there’s a rally to be had.

Many reporters in the last few days have been discussing how volatile the markets have been over the last month.  I’ve been paying attention especially to the daily “records” being made: highest one-day rise since the 20’s; largest one-day drop in the history of the DOW; etc.  Up or down, it doesn’t matter - the fluctuations drive larger and larger swings.

The Edge of Chaos

If you study complexity theory, especially with regard to weather systems, you’ll know about how weather patterns are predicted to violently fluctuate with increased global temperatures.  It’s the same process at work in the boiling of water.

That’s why I think the global markets are basically a complex dynamic system fluctuating around that “period 3″ region, the region of chaos.  It’s here where new structures and changes are supposed to emerge.  But what will or can emerge at the edge of chaos in financial markets?  What does a new financial structure look like?  Is it a new relationship or system for managing relationships between currencies?

Here are some guesses for the sorts of “emerging structures” we might see:
-stronger “emerging” markets;
-changes in fundamental economic relations between countries
-new currencies or the death of previous ones
-cancellations of debt obligations
-major mergers or acquisitions
-other unexpected upheavals (for a smaller example, take the fact that Volkswagen is now the world’s largest company by market capitalization)

I’m sure you can think of others.  How dramatic the emergent structures are will depend on how volatile and bad the markets become.  Today’s interest rate cut by the Fed may have been the immediate cause for the rally, so we still don’t know how long the rally will stick.

Chances are it’s going to remain volatile for a while as many investors use this as an opportunity for purchases or sales that didn’t look attractive at lower or higher levels.  If the volatility remains but we don’t see more downward motion over the next week, I’d expect that to be an indication of the bottom.